Medium-range weather forecast issued by IMD is for (A) 1-2 days (B) 2-7 days (C) 10-15 days (D) None of these

Points to Remember:

IMD’s weather forecasting capabilities.
Different types of weather forecasts and their timeframes.
The distinction between short-range, medium-range, and long-range forecasts.

Introduction:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the national meteorological agency of India. It provides a range of weather forecasting services to the public and various sectors, including agriculture, aviation, and disaster management. Weather forecasts are categorized by their time horizon: short-range, medium-range, and long-range. The accuracy of these forecasts varies depending on the forecasting techniques used and the time frame involved. This question focuses on the timeframe of IMD’s medium-range weather forecasts.

Body:

Types of Weather Forecasts and Timeframes:

The IMD issues weather forecasts across different timeframes:

Short-range forecasts: These typically cover a period of 0-2 days and provide highly detailed information. They rely heavily on real-time observations and numerical weather prediction models with high resolution.
Medium-range forecasts: These extend beyond the short-range period, usually covering 2-7 days. The accuracy decreases as the forecast period lengthens due to the inherent chaotic nature of the atmosphere. These forecasts use more sophisticated numerical models and statistical techniques to predict weather patterns over a longer period.
Long-range forecasts: These forecasts extend beyond 7 days, often covering seasonal or monthly periods (e.g., monsoon forecasts). They are less precise than short-range and medium-range forecasts and focus on broader weather patterns and probabilities rather than specific details. These forecasts often utilize climate models and statistical methods.

IMD’s Medium-Range Forecast:

The IMD’s medium-range forecasts are designed to provide reasonably accurate predictions for a period of 2-7 days. These forecasts incorporate data from various sources, including surface observations, satellite imagery, radar data, and advanced numerical weather prediction models. The forecasts are regularly updated as new data becomes available, improving their accuracy.

Conclusion:

The correct answer is (B) 2-7 days. The IMD’s medium-range weather forecasts provide crucial information for various sectors, enabling them to prepare for potential weather-related impacts. While the accuracy of medium-range forecasts is generally lower than short-range forecasts, they still offer valuable insights into the likely weather conditions over the next few days. Continuous improvement in forecasting techniques, data assimilation, and model resolution is crucial for enhancing the accuracy and reliability of medium-range and other weather forecasts, contributing to better disaster preparedness and resource management. This ultimately supports sustainable development and the well-being of the nation.

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