Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and India
Fifteen countries have formed the world’s largest trading bloc, covering nearly a third of the global economy. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is made up of 10 Southeast Asian countries, as well as South Korea, China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The pact is seen as an extension of China’s influence in the region. The deal excludes the US, which withdrew from a rival Asia-Pacific trade pact in 2017.
The RCEP is expected to eliminate a range of tariffs on imports within 20 years. It also includes provisions on intellectual property, telecommunications, financial services, e-commerce and professional services.
Businesses with global supply chains might face tariffs even within an FTA because their products contain components that are made elsewhere. A product made in Indonesia that contains Australian parts, for example, might face tariffs elsewhere in the Asean free trade zone. Under RCEP, parts from any member nation would be treated equally, which might give companies in RCEP countries an incentive to look within the trade region for suppliers.
Significance of RCEP
The RCEP isn’t as comprehensive and doesn’t cut tariffs as deeply as the TPP’s successor. But many analysts think RCEP’s sheer size makes it more significant. “Its membership includes a larger group of nations, notably reflecting the membership of China, which considerably boosts the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of RCEP members.
Implications of the deal for Asia-pacific nations
The deal could increase global national income by $186bn annually by 2030 and add 0.2% to the economy of its member states. However, some analysts think the deal is likely to benefit China, Japan and South Korea more than other member states. The economic benefits of the deal might only be marginal for South East Asia, but there are some interesting trade and tariff dynamics to watch for North East Asia.
Economic Implications for India of opting out of RCEP
On November 4, 2019, India decided to exit discussions over “significant outstanding issues”. According to a government official, India had been “consistently” raising “fundamental issues” and concerns throughout the negotiations and was prompted to take this stand as they had not been resolved by the deadline to commit to signing the deal. Its decision was to safeguard the interests of industries like agriculture and dairy and to give an advantage to the country’s services sector. According to officials, the current structure of RCEP still does not address these issues and concernsOn November 4, 2019, India decided to exit discussions over “significant outstanding issues”. According to a government official, India had been “consistently” raising “fundamental issues” and concerns throughout the negotiations and was prompted to take this stand as they had not been resolved by the deadline to commit to signing the deal. Its decision was to safeguard the interests of industries like agriculture and dairy and to give an advantage to the country’s services sector. According to officials, the current structure of RCEP still does not address these issues and concerns.
Escalating tensions with China are a major reason for India’s decision. While China’s participation in the deal had already been proving difficult for India due to various economic threats, the clash at Galwan Valley has soured relations between the two countries. The various measures India has taken to reduce its exposure to China would have sat uncomfortably with its commitments under RCEP.
Major issues that were unresolved during RCEP negotiations were related to the exposure that India would have to China. This included India’s fears that there were “inadequate” protections against surges in imports. It felt there could also be a possible circumvention of rules of origin— the criteria used to determine the national source of a product — in the absence of which some countries could dump their products by routing them through other countries that enjoyed lower tariffs.
India was unable to ensure countermeasures like an auto-trigger mechanism to raise tariffs on products when their imports crossed a certain threshold. It also wanted RCEP to exclude most-favoured nation (MFN) obligations from the investment chapter, as it did not want to hand out, especially to countries with which it has border disputes, the benefits it was giving to strategic allies or for geopolitical reasons. India felt the agreement would force it to extend benefits given to other countries for sensitive sectors like defence to all RCEP members.
There are concerns that India’s decision would impact its bilateral trade ties with RCEP member nations, as they may be more inclined to focus on bolstering economic ties within the bloc. The move could potentially leave India with less scope to tap the large market that RCEP presents —the size of the deal is mammoth, as the countries involved account for over 2 billion of the world’s population.
Given attempts by countries like Japan to get India back into the deal, there are also worries that India’s decision could impact the Australia-India-Japan network in the Indo-Pacific. It could potentially put a spanner in the works on informal talks to promote a Supply Chain Resilience Initiative among the three.
However, India’s stance on the deal also comes as a result of learnings from unfavourable trade balances that it has with several RCEP members, with some of which it even has FTAs. An internal assessment by the government has revealed that the growth in trade (CAGR) with partners over the last five financial years was a modest 7.1%. While “there has been growth rate in both imports from and exports to these FTA partners”, the “utilisation rate” of FTAs both for India and its partners has been “moderate” across sectors, according to this study, which covers pacts with Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Thailand, Singapore, Japan, Bhutan, Nepal, Republic of Korea and Malaysia.
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